Alan Blinder, a Princeton University economics professor, published a piece in “Foreign Affairs” early last year, excerpts from which were published in the Dallas Morning News on January 7. Mr. Blinder argues that the defenders of offshore outsourcing “underestimated both the importance of offshoring and its disruptive effect on wealthy countries. . . . That said, we should not view the coming wave of offshoring as an impending catastrophe. . . . The normal gains from trade mean that the world as a whole cannot lose from increases in productivity, and the United States and other industrial countries have not only weathered but also benefited from comparable changes in the past. But, in order to do so again, the governments and societies of the developed world must face up to the massive, complex, and multifaceted challenges that offshoring will bring.”

As I read this, it says that offshoring is not an “impending catastrophe” as long as the developed world faces “up to the massive, complex, and multifaceted challenges that offshoring will bring.” Yet, he writes, “National data systems, trade policies, educational systems, social welfare programs and politics all must adapt to new realities.” BUT “UNFORTUNATELY NONE OF THIS IS HAPPENING NOW.”

Well, can’t we conclude from that that if these things are not being faced now, we are indeed faced with an “impending catastrophe”? Maybe not. Not if we can goad the governments in the developed world into turning to face these challenges. But can we?

He writes, “the United States and other rich nations will have to transform their educational systems so as to prepare workers for the jobs that will actually exist. . . .” Well, heck! That won’t be hard. Or will it? We haven’t gotten all of our educational system to accept evolution as a scientific fact, so how hard will changing the system be? Furthermore, Mr. Blinder writes that the jobs of the future will involve “personal presence,” i.e., face-to-face services—divorce attorneys, internists, nurses, sales people, waiters, janitors, teachers, plumbers, mechanics, carpenters, and except for perhaps the first two, all of these are the kind of high-paying jobs that people strive for, aren’t they? So what kind of changes to the educational system do we have to make to prepare people to be waiters, janitors, and garbage collectors anyhow?

“Another important step for rich countries,” Mr. Blinder writes, ”is to rethink the currently inadequate programs for trade adjustment assistance. The United States may have to repair and thicken the tattered safety net that supports workers who fall off the labor-market trapeze. At present, the United States has one of the thinnest social safety nets in the industrial world, AND THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY POLITICAL FORCE SEEKING TO IMPROVE IT.” Yes, indeed! This won’t be hard to change, either, will it?

So what is Professor Blinder’s point? Are we or are we not facing an “impending catastrophe”? He says, “we should not view the coming wave of offshoring as an impending catastrophe” but if his argument is correct, I’d say we’re in for a hell of a bad time in the United States of America.

It just dumbfounds me that an erudite economics professor could write a piece that concludes that we should not view the coming wave of offshoring as an impending catastrophe when all the other evidence in the piece supports the opposite conclusion.

©2007 John Kozy, Jr.